🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Trader Made $Nearly Half a Million on Wagers Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was made public, sparking debate about potential gains made from non-public details of the event. Market Movement in Predictions Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the close of the month surged in the hours before former President Trump declared on January 3rd that the president had been taken into custody. A particular user, which joined the platform recently and took four positions, all on Venezuela, profited a total of $nearly half a million from a initial bet of $32.5K. The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Market statistics shows that traders assessed the probability of a political change at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. However the odds had increased to over 10% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the morning of January 3rd, indicating a sudden change in market sentiment immediately prior to the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the signs of a transaction based on inside information," commented a financial reform advocate. Several of other platform users also earned tens of thousands of dollars from bets on the same outcome. Regulatory Scrutiny Grows Politicians are growing concerned. A new rule put forward on the start of the week would prevent public officials from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market. Industry Context Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in the past few years, with users able to bet on everything from sports to current affairs. The industry were examined under the last presidential term. However it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the prediction market arena. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."