A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
